Limboy
On Having Enough Socks

Personal experience and surveys on running out of socks; discussion of socks as small example of human procrastination and irrationality, caused by lack of explicit deliberative thought where no natural triggers or habits exist.

Gwern 的这篇文章从「袜子不够用了」这件小事出发,做了很多的思考,本质上是将「袜子不够用」这件事比做「长期忽略某些事情,导致逐渐偏离正确的方向,最终承受它带来的负面效应」。

这些事情,可以是深渊事情,也可以是日常采购这样的「小事」。持续地忽视它们,会让自己一直活在次优解状态下。

用「系统一」和「系统二」(出自 Thinking, Fast and Slow)来解释的话,就是长期让系统一主导,而系统二很少干预。

解决方案就是设置一个定时 Review 机制,强制让系统二去检验系统一。

lack of hard rules lets errors accumulate, without any ‘global’ understanding of the drift into disaster (or at least inefficiency). Humans on a smaller scale also ‘drift’ when they engage in System I reactive thinking & action for too long, resulting in cognitive biases.

缺乏硬性规定会让错误不断累积,而没有任何 "全局 "意识会让错误演变成灾难(或至少是低效)。在较小的范围内,人类如果长期处于系统 I 的被动思维和行动中,就会产生认知偏差,从而导致 "漂移"。

Fixes for these things can be seen as ensuring that System II deliberative cognition is periodically invoked to review things at a global level, such as developing a habit of maximum exploration at first purchase of a food product, or annually reviewing possessions to note problems like a lack of socks.

对这些问题的解决可以被看作是确保系统二的审慎认知被定期调用,以在全局层面对事物进行审查,比如养成在首次购买食品时最大限度探索的习惯,或者每年对财产进行审查,以注意到缺少袜子等问题。

For many things, there is never any hard deadline or scheduled event or reminder which would bring a need to mind. So necessary things suffer from what a computer scientist might call starvation: when a background task, like running a backup, which has a low priority (eg. a backup can wait a few minutes without much risk), is continuously pushed out by higher priority tasks and never gets to run; while it may not have been urgent that it run immediately, it is urgent that it run eventually. (Anyone who disagrees about backups not being important is free to implement that advice and see how it works for them in the long run.)

对于许多事情来说,从来没有任何硬性的截止日期、计划事件或提醒会让人想起需要做的事情。因此,必要的事情就会遭受计算机科学家所谓的 "饥饿":当后台任务(如运行备份)的优先级较低(例如,备份可以等待几分钟而不会有太大风险)时,就会被优先级较高的任务不断挤出,永远无法运行;虽然它可能并不急于立即运行,但它最终运行却是急需的。(如果有人不同意备份并不重要的说法,可以自由实施该建议,看看从长远来看效果如何)。